If you’ve been watching mortgage rates the past few years, it’s felt a bit like riding a roller coaster at Broadway at the Beach—only less fun and a lot more expensive. As we move through 2026, buyers and builders across the Grand Strand are asking the same question: “Are mortgage rates finally going to come down… and enough to matter?”
In this guide, we’ll break down what the experts are projecting for 2026, how Federal Reserve policy feeds into mortgage rates, and what it all means if you’re planning to buy or build in Myrtle Beach, Carolina Forest, Market Common, or anywhere along the coast.
Quick Reality Check: How Mortgage Rates Work (and Why the Fed Matters)
Before we talk about where rates might go in 2026, it helps to know what actually drives them.
Mortgage rates are influenced by:
Federal funds rate – the short-term rate controlled by the Federal Reserve
Inflation expectations – if inflation is high or sticky, investors demand higher yields
Bond market & 10-year Treasury – 30-year mortgage rates typically track the 10-year Treasury yield, plus a spread
Risk & investor demand – global events, bank health, and investor appetite can widen or narrow spreads
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but its interest rate decisions and communications strongly influence market expectations. In its 2025 monetary policy reports and outlooks, the Fed signaled that the federal funds rate is likely to gradually move lower by the end of 2026, as inflation trends closer to its 2% goal. (Federal Reserve)
That’s a key backdrop for any 2026 mortgage-rate conversation.
What the Experts Are Predicting for 2026 Mortgage Rates
Let’s look at what major housing and mortgage groups were projecting going into 2026. (Forecasts can and do change, but this gives you a grounded starting point.)
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
The Mortgage Bankers Association regularly updates a detailed mortgage finance forecast. In its late-2025 commentary, MBA projected that:
The 30-year fixed rate would ease from high-6% levels,
And drift down toward the mid-6% range by the end of 2026, assuming inflation continues to cool and Fed policy gradually loosens. (MBA)
In other words: not a return to the 3% pandemic-era rates, but a modest, gradual improvement from the 2023–2024 highs.
Fannie Mae & Other Agencies
Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group expects mortgage rates to end 2026 around the high-5% to low-6% range, slightly lower than 2025 levels, as inflation cools and long-term yields adjust. (Fannie Mae)
Freddie Mac’s economic outlook has told a similar story: rates stay elevated by historical standards, but off their peaks, supporting gradual improvement in affordability and home sales. (Freddie Mac)
What That Means in Plain English
For 2026, most credible forecasts point to:
Average 30-year fixed rates somewhere in the mid-5% to mid-6% range,
Not a free-fall, but a slow “step down” from the 7%+ territory of recent years,
Plenty of month-to-month volatility based on inflation readings, Fed comments, and global events.
So yes, rates are expected to be lower in 2026 than the peak years, but not low enough that waiting forever on “the perfect rate” is a winning strategy.
How 2026 Rates Impact Myrtle Beach Buyers
Now let’s bring this home to the Grand Strand.
Affordability: A Little Better, Still Tight
As rates slip from the upper-6s into the mid-6s or high-5s, the monthly payment on a typical Myrtle Beach home can drop by $150–$300/month compared to peak-rate years (exact savings depend on price and down payment).
That can be the difference between:
Stretching uncomfortably for a home in Carolina Forest or Market Common, vs.
Having some monthly breathing room for HOA fees, golf, and, you know… life.
Inventory & Competition
In 2023–2024, a lot of would-be sellers stayed put because they didn’t want to give up ultra-low pandemic rates. As 2026 rates ease:
More move-up and move-down sellers may finally list, especially in desirable neighborhoods like The Dunes, Carolina Forest, and Barefoot Resort.
Out-of-state buyers from the Northeast and Midwest who’ve been waiting on the sidelines may re-enter the market, keeping demand steady.
So while payments may be more manageable, competition for well-located, move-in-ready homes will likely stay strong.
What Smart Buyers Do in 2026
If you’re a buyer in Myrtle Beach in 2026, consider:
Focusing on the right home first, and the perfect rate second. You can’t change the lot, but you can refinance later if rates drop.
Exploring temporary buydowns and seller credits – more on this in the builder section.
Locking strategically. In a volatile year, a good lender partner can help you decide when to lock and whether a float-down option makes sense.
What 2026 Mortgage Rates Mean for Builders & New Construction
Builders along the Grand Strand—from custom homes in Waterway communities to new neighborhoods in Carolina Forest and off Highway 707—have been playing defense against higher rates by getting more creative.
With rates expected to settle a bit lower (but not “cheap”) in 2026, here’s what we’re likely to see:
More Builder Incentives, Just Structured Differently
Instead of simply cutting prices, many builders prefer to buy down your rate:
2-1 or 3-2-1 buydowns – lower your rate for the first 1–3 years to ease payment shock
Permanent buydowns – builder contributes to closing costs that your lender uses to reduce the rate for the life of the loan
Closed-cost assistance – credits that help cover fees so you bring less cash to the table
These tools become even more powerful when baseline rates are in the 5.75–6.5% range instead of 7%+.
Design & Product Shifts in 2026
With affordability still a concern, expect more:
Smarter square footage – right-sized floor plans that live large without unnecessary space
Energy-efficient features – better insulation, windows, and HVAC to help offset monthly costs
Flexible spaces – home offices and multipurpose rooms for buyers still working hybrid schedules
For local builders like Carolina Crafted Homes, this environment rewards thoughtful design and transparent pricing rather than cheap finishes and surprise add-ons.
Should You Wait for Lower Rates… or Move in 2026?
The big question: Is 2026 the year to buy or build in Myrtle Beach, or should you hold out for even lower rates?
Here’s a practical way to think about it:
When Waiting Might Make Sense
You might lean toward waiting if:
Your credit score or debts need work, and a few months could significantly improve your rate either way.
You’re locked into a very low existing rate (3–4%) and upsizing isn’t a true need yet.
You need time to build a larger down payment, especially for jumbo or second-home financing.
When Moving in 2026 Makes Sense
Buying or building in 2026 can be smart if:
Your life is telling you it’s time—new job, growing family, retirement move to the coast.
You find a home or homesite that’s a great fit in a tight inventory area like Market Common or Carolina Forest.
A builder is willing to offer meaningful incentives (rate buydown, closing costs) that create a payment you’re comfortable with today.
Remember: if expert forecasts are right and the Fed gradually lowers the policy rate into 2026 and beyond, you’ll likely have refinance opportunities later, even if your first-year rate isn’t perfect. (Federal Reserve)
Game Plan for Myrtle Beach Buyers & Builders in 2026
To make 2026 work in your favor:
For Buyers
Know your “comfort payment,” not just your max pre-approval.
Compare scenarios – ask your lender to show today’s payment vs. a potential 2027 refinance.
Be open to new construction – especially if a builder can structure a lower effective rate.
Look slightly beyond the hot spots – communities just outside Market Common or Carolina Forest can offer better value with similar lifestyle.
For Builders & Developers
Lead with transparency on pricing and incentives—buyers are rate-sensitive and informed.
Offer structured buydowns that meaningfully reduce early-year payments.
Highlight local lifestyle: proximity to the beach, marsh views, golf, and amenities that hold value even when rates are higher.
Partner closely with local lenders who understand the Grand Strand buyer profile and seasonal patterns.
Ready to Talk Through a 2026 Strategy?
Whether you’re dreaming of a custom build along the Intracoastal Waterway or hunting for a low-maintenance home near Market Common, 2026 doesn’t have to be “the year you wait.” With thoughtful planning around mortgage rates, incentives, and timing, you can make the numbers—and the lifestyle—work.
Carolina Crafted Homes can help you run real numbers on building vs. buying, look at current rate options, and map out a plan that fits your budget today with room to refinance tomorrow.
👉 Ready to explore your 2026 options in Myrtle Beach and across the Grand Strand? Schedule a no-pressure consultation with Carolina Crafted Homes and let’s run your scenarios together.
FAQs
Q1. Will mortgage rates actually go down in 2026?
Most major forecasts suggest that mortgage rates in 2026 should be lower than the peak years, but not back to the 3% era. Groups like the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae expect rates to edge down into roughly the mid-5% to mid-6% range by late 2026, assuming inflation continues to cool and the Federal Reserve gradually lowers short-term rates. The key word is “gradual” rather than “crash.”
Q2. Is it better to wait for lower rates or buy a home in Myrtle Beach in 2026?
If you’re financially ready and find the right home or homesite, 2026 can be a good time to move forward, even if rates aren’t perfect yet. You’re likely to see modestly lower payments than in 2023–2024, plus more inventory as sellers re-enter the market. Waiting only makes sense if you truly need time to strengthen your credit, increase savings, or clarify your long-term plans.
Q3. How do 2026 mortgage rate forecasts affect new construction in Myrtle Beach?
For builders, 2026 is a year to lean into smart incentives rather than big price cuts. With rates still elevated by historical standards, many Grand Strand builders will use temporary and permanent rate buydowns, along with closing cost credits, to make monthly payments more manageable. Buyers benefit from these tools, especially in high-demand areas like Carolina Forest or Market Common, where new construction offers more choice.
Q4. Can I refinance later if mortgage rates fall after I buy in 2026?
In most cases, yes. As long as you qualify and there’s enough rate improvement to offset closing costs, refinancing later can help you lower your payment or shorten your loan term. Many Myrtle Beach buyers in 2026 will choose to buy the right home now at a workable rate, with the plan to refinance if and when rates move meaningfully lower in the coming years. A good lender can help you run the math.
Q5. What strategies can buyers use to lower payments in 2026?
Buyers can combine several tools to tame payments in 2026. That can include builder or seller-paid buydowns, permanent points, closing cost credits, and choosing a slightly smaller floor plan or more affordable neighborhood just outside the highest-priced communities. In Myrtle Beach, where HOA and amenity costs can vary, it’s also important to look at the total monthly cost, not just principal and interest.
Q6. Are mortgage rates different for second homes or investment properties in 2026?
Yes. Second homes and investment properties typically carry higher rates and stricter guidelines than primary residences. In 2026, it’s reasonable to expect a noticeable premium on vacation or rental properties in Myrtle Beach, especially in oceanfront and resort communities. If you’re considering a second home or STR, build in a buffer for higher rates, larger down payments, and stricter debt-to-income requirements than a primary home purchase.
